Administrative‐Led Urbanisation and Migrants’ Settlement Intention: Evidence From the City–County Merger Policy in China
2026-07-09
In China, administrative‐led urbanisation, epitomised by the City‐County Merger (CCM) policy, has been a fundamental driver of urban expansion. While this territorial reorganisation aims to foster integrated regional development, its profound sociodemographic consequences, particularly on the settlement decisions of the massive migrants, remain a critical yet under‐explored area. This study examines whether and how the CCM reform, which converts counties into urban districts, affects migrants’ settlement intention. Employing a quasi‐experimental design and data from the China Migrant Dynamic Monitoring Survey (2010–2018) merged with county‐level statistics, we identify a robust positive causal effect of CCM on migrants’ settlement intention and identity recognition. Our mechanism analyses reveal that the policy operates through three channels: by expanding housing supply and improving affordability, by creating higher‐quality employment opportunities, and by enhancing the accessibility and quality of public services, especially in education and transportation. Furthermore, heterogeneity analyses indicate that the effect is more pronounced for migrants in economically developed regions, those with agricultural household registration (hukou), and highly educated individuals. The research underscores that administrative restructuring is not merely a geopolitical adjustment but a powerful instrument that can reshape migrants’ life trajectories by lowering institutional and economic barriers to urban integration. These findings offer significant implications for designing more inclusive and sustainable urbanisation policies in China and other economies undergoing state‐led urban transformation.