Agricultural trade and adaptation to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa
2026-07-14
Climate change is predicted to have large and heterogeneous impacts on agricultural yields. I use a model of production, consumption, and trade of 24 crops between 271 regions across sub-Saharan Africa to simulate the effects of climate change and explore how trade mediates these effects. I estimate a continent-wide welfare loss equivalent to 2.4% of GDP using median yield changes across 5 climate models, with country-level losses up to 60% of GDP in the worst model. The continent-wide welfare loss is 19% smaller with lower trade costs and over 7 times larger if trade flows are capped at current levels.