British Journal of Politics & International Relations
Between compliance and capitulation: Explaining the termination of member state suspensions by international organisations
2025-12-28
When do suspensions of member states by international organisations terminate due to target state compliance, international organisation capitulation, or draws? While existing research analysed the imposition of multilateral sanctions and the success of economic sanctions, this question has not been systematically addressed. I develop a theoretical framework based on research on cooperation and sanctions, which I test through quantitative analysis based on an original dataset of suspension episodes in regional international organisations (1990–2024), as well as two qualitative comparative case studies of suspension terminations in the Economic Community of West African States and the Council of Europe. The paper finds that suspensions end through target state compliance if the regional international organisation is united, the target state is vulnerable to the international organisation’s pressure, and the international organisation perceives the transgression as a severe violation of its community norms – and through international organisation capitulation if otherwise. If these factors point into different directions, this increases the chance for suspensions to be terminated as draws.