Colonial Legacies and the Dynamics of Opposition: How Factional Power Shapes Cycles of Moderation and Radicalization
2026-09-08
This article explains why opposition movements in the Middle East cycle between radicalization and moderation over long periods. I argue that twentieth-century colonization shaped both exclusionary state institutions and radical opposition groups, structuring how later episodes of inclusion and exclusion influenced movement strategies. The paper explains subsequent oscillations through a single core mechanism: shifting factional balances of power. State inclusion and exclusion redistribute influence between moderates and radicals, generating shifts between confrontation and accommodation. I develop and evaluate the theory through longitudinal process tracing of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt and the Iraqi Communist Party, supplemented by shadow cases illustrating colonial presence (Palestine) and absence (Turkey), using evidence from 96 semistructured interviews, archival materials, and participant observation conducted between 2021 and 2024 in Palestine, Iraq, and Turkey. By foregrounding temporality and factional dynamics, the article reframes debates on Islamist moderation and authoritarian durability as path-dependent and iterative processes rather than linear transformations.