Decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions due to warming-induced fires and methanogenesis
- Sihong Zhu
- Yi Liu
- Paul I. Palmer
- Liang Feng
- Dongxu Yang
- Shangfeng Chen
- Motoki Sasakawa
- Robert J. Parker
- Hartmut Boesch
- Junji Cao
- Ove Hermansen
- Stephen M. Platt
2026-08-06
The northern permafrost region, which stores double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, is vulnerable to accelerated warming. Methane emissions from thawing permafrost may eventually result in a climate-carbon feedback. Our analysis of atmospheric methane data shows that Siberian growing-season methane emissions have increased by 12.0 ± 1.9 teragrams of methane (TgCH 4 ) (5% per year) over the period 2010–2023. We reveal contrasting Siberian hydrological trends linked to high-pressure systems and distinct air-sea-land interactions. Warmer, drier conditions over eastern Siberia enhance fire-related emissions (0.7 ± 0.1 TgCH 4 year −2 ), and wetter conditions over western Siberia promote wetland-related emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 TgCH 4 year −2 ). Weakly nonlinear relationships between temperature maxima and emissions suggest that by 2050, higher Siberian emissions could offset about 20% of the global methane reduction required for climate targets, with eastern Siberia dominating the projected increase.