Population and Development Review
Demographic Structure and Democracy: Population Aging and Immigration in Global Perspective
2026-08-19
Substantial demographic and democratic changes have unfolded globally in recent history, inviting inquiry into the relationship between these two phenomena. Joining the growing research in political demography, we advance a conceptual framework that links structural demographic factors to democratic progress and decline through economic, ideological, and representational mechanisms. Guided by this framework, we analyze two key demographic factors using an original longitudinal dataset covering 153 countries from 1975 to 2020. The results demonstrate a nonlinear and context‐dependent relationship between demography and democracy. Specifically, population aging and immigration levels are generally associated with lower levels of democracy; though in the case of immigration, this relationship weakens as immigrant shares increase, indicating a nonlinear pattern. Importantly, demography is not destiny: the relationship between population structure and democracy is further shaped by economic and political contexts. Overall, this paper underscores the profound and nuanced ways in which structural demographic change shapes democratic outcomes.