American Journal of Political Science
Designing multi‐site studies for external validity: Site selection via synthetic purposive sampling
2026-09-07
Multi‐site/context studies have become popular strategies to address the most common and challenging external validity concerns about contexts. Under such studies, scholars conduct causal studies in each site and evaluate whether findings generalize across sites. Despite the potential, there has been little guidance on the fundamental research design question—how should we select sites for external validity? Existing approaches have challenges: random sampling of sites is often infeasible, while the current practice of purposive sampling is suboptimal without statistical guarantees. We propose synthetic purposive sampling (SPS), which optimally selects diverse sites for external validity. SPS combines ideas of purposive sampling and the synthetic control method—it selects diverse sites such that nonselected sites are well approximated by the weighted average of the selected sites. We illustrate its general applicability using both experimental and observational studies. Overall, this paper offers a new statistical foundation to design multisite studies for external validity.