Determinants of Female Migrants' Settlement Intentions in China: A Multi‐Level Analysis Based on Ecological Systems Theory
2026-02-03
Understanding the settlement intentions of female migrants is crucial for promoting inclusive and sustainable urbanization, yet existing studies often lack a gender‐sensitive and multi‐level analytical framework. Drawing on ecological systems theory, this study integrates spatial analysis and interpretable machine learning to examine the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of female migrants' settlement intentions in China. Results show that settlement intentions are unevenly distributed, with northern and northwestern regions showing higher intentions than southern regions. The meso‐system (workplace and family context) exerts the most pronounced influence on settlement decisions. Short‐distance migration and higher local minimum wages consistently strengthen women's willingness to settle. By contrast, accumulated household difficulties and elevated crime levels substantially weaken settlement intentions. Notably, several influences are nonlinear: moderate working hours enhance settlement willingness, but excessive hours quickly erode it, and air pollution becomes a decisive deterrent once the AQI exceeds 100. These findings suggest that female migrants' settlement decisions emerge from the balance between economic security, family sustainability, and urban livability, underscoring the need for gender‐sensitive and place‐based policy interventions.