Disruption and Adjustment. Labour Market Performance of Ukrainian War Refugees in Poland in the Context of Pre‐War Migration
2026-07-10
In the context of the exceptionally high labour market activity of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland, this article examines its drivers in mid‐2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Adapting the aspiration‐capabilities framework to economic integration outcomes, and using data from a Poland‐wide survey of Ukrainian nationals, it evaluates the role of war refugees' earlier migration experience and positions their labour market outcomes alongside those of pre‐war migrants (including recent migrants). Our analyses reveal that, in addition to lower employment rates, war refugees had less stable jobs and a more polarised occupational structure. Both capabilities—social, financial and human capital—and aspirations, related to skills usage and migratory plans (but not prior migration experience) influenced war refugees' labour market outcomes. Based on our results, we point to the importance of structural factors in forced migrants' labour market integration, and discuss the role of the temporary protection framework against this background.