Population and Development Review
Does Exposure to Community Violence Predict Higher Suicide Rates? The Case of Mexico
2026-08-14
Despite both homicide and suicide being identified as global public health concerns, it is unclear whether and how homicide trends could shape suicide patterns, particularly in low‐or‐middle income countries. We use the case of Mexico, an upper‐middle‐income country that experienced a dramatic increase in homicide after a shift in drug‐enforcement policy in 2006, to evaluate the relationship between community violence and suicide. Our analysis relies on geocoded death certificates microdata for the entire national territory to assess the association between homicide rates and suicide rates at the municipality level for the 2000–2019 period. We find evidence of positive associations between homicide rates and suicide within six months of exposure to high homicide levels, and especially in the period immediately after homicide spikes relative to the violence baseline in the previous three years. These surges in suicide are primarily driven by auto‐inflicted strangulation. No changes in suicide were identified after more than six months of exposure to high homicide levels, or as exposure to increasing homicides accumulated in the long term. Our results are consistent with violence spikes predicting an instant but transitory increase in suicide, plausibly by causing acute fear, stress, and uncertainty in the period immediately surrounding drastic surges in violence.