Earthquake-triggered cascading hazards under Arctic amplification
- Guilherme W. S. de Melo
- Reginald L. Hermanns
- Jacob M. Bendle
- Ingo Grevemeyer
- Sylvain Fiolleau
- Simone Cesca
- Aderson F. do Nascimento
- Lars Ottemöller
- Gökhan Aslan
- Quentin Brissaud
- Volker Oye
- Heidrun Kopp
2026-09-08
Arctic warming is reshaping permafrost and glacierized terrains, potentially changing their natural hazards in response to seismic shaking. On 10 March 2025, a Mw 6.5 oceanic transform fault earthquake near Jan Mayen Island in the Arctic Ocean triggered a large rock avalanche that buried part of the Kjerulf Glacier, generating infrasound signals and glacier calving. Using seismic, Global Navigation Satellite System data, infrasound records, satellite imagery, and long-term climatological records, we reconstruct a cascade of processes linking earthquake rupture to rock slope failure and ice calving. The rock avalanche occurred within minutes of the earthquake accompanied by a transient reduction in near-surface seismic velocity. Satellite observations further reveal multiple precursor slope failures during the years preceding the earthquake, indicating progressive instability of the slope. Long-term warming and permafrost degradation, likely contributed to reduce the slope stability, increasing susceptibility to the seismic ground shaking trigger. Our findings suggest that Arctic warming may progressively increase the susceptibility of slopes to earthquake-triggered failure in the Arctic, highlighting the emerging interactions between tectonic hazards, cryosphere instability, and climate change.