Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations
- Francisco Palmero
- Eric A. Davidson
- Kaiyu Guan
- Alison J. Eagle
- Hannah E. Birgé
- P. V. Vara Prasad
- Trevor J. Hefley
- Jeffrey R. Schussler
- Ignacio A. Ciampitti
2026-02-05
Excessive crop nitrogen (N) fertilization has negative environmental and social consequences. Using maize grain yield response to nitrogen field trials, we consider the uncertainty surrounding N rate recommendations to demonstrate that fertilizer N rates can be reduced by 12─16% in the US Corn Belt, with negligible risk of maize yield losses. This reduction in N fertilizer applications decrease N 2 O–N emissions by 10% and N leaching by 13%, leading to a social benefit of 230─$530 M, due to enhanced air and water quality. Additional N reductions could benefit ecosystems and human health. However, the high risk of yield loss associated with additional N reductions makes this practice unacceptable for farmers. This emphasizes the need for incentive programs that consider the responsibilities and limitations of all actors along the food supply chain.