Estimating fiscal multipliers by combining statistical identification with potentially endogenous proxies
2025-11-26
Summary Different proxy variables used in fiscal policy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) lead to contradicting conclusions regarding the size of fiscal multipliers. Our analysis suggests that the conflicting results may stem from violations of the proxy exogeneity assumptions. We propose a novel approach to include proxy variables in a Bayesian non-Gaussian SVAR, tailored to accommodate potentially endogenous proxies. Using our model, we find that increasing government spending is more effective in stimulating the economy than reducing taxes.