Fading voices: explaining the termination of organizations in dissent
2026-01-29
Why do organizations cease to exist? We focus on organizations in Africa and Central America and the Caribbean that have protested against the central government from 1990 to 2017. These organizations can play a crucial role in democratic development by mobilizing social groups. However, a significant number (up to 26%) of organizations actually disband over time. To understand the reasons for this, we focus on factors related to organizational activities and state responses. Using the Anatomy of Resistance Campaigns (version 2.0) dataset, we are able to track the evolution of such organizations from their founding to their eventual termination. Our results show that the use of nonviolent means and maximalist demands make the dissolution of an organization less likely. Whereas lethal repression has no effect, legal restrictions influence the demise of the organization. Understanding the conditions under which organizations survive or terminate is crucial for assessing the long-term potential of contentious politics. These insights are particularly relevant in contexts where civil society is under pressure and democratic institutions are fragile.