Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
Gender, Ethnoracial, and Economic Differences in the Predictive Power of Early-Grade Test Scores on College Enrollment and Degree Completion
2026-05-16
Attempts to explain gender differences in postsecondary enrollment and completion have focused almost exclusively on students’ academic performance and experiences in middle school and high school. Our analysis shows that elementary-grade test scores are also an early indicator of postsecondary outcomes. We examine the relationship between third-grade test performance and students’ college outcomes, focusing on variations by gender, race/ethnicity, and free/reduced-price lunch eligibility. We establish how the gender gaps in college outcomes that favor females relate to early-grade academic performance and show the extent to which third-grade test scores are predictive of college enrollment and degree completion.