Investigating Conditional Macro-Level Media Effects Over a Long-Term: How Crisis Periods Moderate the Effects of Suicide Coverage on Suicide Rate Change (1861–2007)
2026-09-03
How does media shape society over decades, and does its effect vary depending on the societal atmosphere or zeitgeist ? While theoretically important, there is a lack of systematic empirical evidence on conditional long-term macro-level media effects. We propose a broader framework to study such effects and demonstrate its applicability for the “Werther effect” in the UK. More specifically, we investigate whether media coverage of suicides in a newspaper of record is linked to suicide rates and whether this link changes during societal crises. For this, we combine suicide data with a large-scale automated content analysis of crisis and suicide reporting in The Times over a century (1861-2007). Our analysis shows that increased suicide reporting is associated with higher suicide rates, but only during crisis periods. The results are consistent with a conditional Werther effect and may offer one piece of the larger puzzle of long-term macro-level media influences on society.