Long-term decline in above-ground carbon sinks in Brazilian tropical and subtropical forests
- Vinícius Andrade Maia
- Natália de Aguiar-Campos
- Fernanda Coelho de Souza
- Cléber Rodrigo de Souza
- Jamir Prado-Junior
- Camila Laís Farrapo
- Tainá Mamede Cirne-Silva
- Jean Daniel Morel
- Fernanda Moreira Gianasi
- Gabriela Gomes Pires de Paula
- Nathalle Cristine Alencar Fagundes
- Alisson Borges Miranda Santos
- Wilder Bento da Silva
- Felipe de Carvalho Araújo
- Fernanda de Oliveira
- André Maciel da Silva Sene
- Lidiany Carolina Arantes da Silva
- Leony Aparecido Silva Ferreira
- Miguel Gama Reis
- Denise Moura Madeira
- Rafaella Tavares Pereira
- Vinvivenci Filipe Pereira de Lima e Silva
- Ana Lívia de Carvalho Rodrigues
- Renan de Soldi Matzner
- Michael de Oliveira Alves Braga
- Marco Aurélio Leite Fontes
- Ana Carolina Silva
- Pedro Higuchi
- Rubens Manoel dos Santos
2026-08-17
Recent evidence indicates that Brazilian forests are shifting from persistent carbon sinks to emerging carbon sources, with important implications for the global climate. To investigate this trend, we analyse long-term census data from 49 forest sites spanning southeast and southern Brazil, including tropical and subtropical forests. We examine above-ground carbon dynamics and its relationship with tree diversity and functional traits that are tightly linked with species’ carbon processing and storage capacities. Our findings reveal a long-term trend of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic homogenisation and a decline in the forests’ above-ground carbon sink. Specifically, homogeneous forests have lower carbon losses, whilst forests with more conservative species are associated with greater carbon gains and lower carbon losses. Overall, our study establishes a baseline to understand and predict the above-ground carbon sink in the face of ongoing climate change in this region.