International Journal of Press-Politics
Not a Bioweapon, or is it? The Role of Perceived Threats and Media Use in COVID-19 Misperceptions
2025-08-22
The COVID-19 pandemic not only posed unprecedented threats to public health and economic stability but also triggered a crisis of information, described by the World Health Organization as an “infodemic.” Against this backdrop, this study explores the dynamics of COVID-19 misperceptions through the lens of Appraisal Theory and the Reinforcing Spirals Model, examining how perceived threats and media exposure shaped belief updating and reinforcement over time. Drawing on a two-year panel survey conducted in Austria (April 2020 to March 2022), we use a mixed Markov chain model to analyze one of the most persistent and widely believed conspiracy narratives—the claim that COVID-19 was a deliberately engineered bioweapon. The results reveal two opposing types of belief trajectories: an upward trajectory of belief stability, reinforcement of accurate beliefs, and correction, driven by perceived health-related threats and exposure to high-quality media, such as public broadcasters and broadsheets; and a downward trajectory marked by heightened belief instability, reinforcement of misperceptions, and an erosion of belief accuracy, associated with perceived economic threats and the use of low-quality media—including tabloids, commercial TV, and social media. Overall, the findings highlight the value of the theoretical frameworks for a more nuanced understanding of belief dynamics in times of crisis and underline the vital role of high-quality media in fostering a well-informed democratic public.