Political Psychology

Not‐so‐great expectations: Outgroup indifference facilitates conflict resolution in negatively interdependent contexts

2026-08-21

We examined how responses to outgroup indifference in conflict are shaped by the perceived nature of interdependence, which changes expectations of outgroup emotions toward the ingroup. Unlike conflicts perceived as positively interdependent, we hypothesized that in conflicts perceived as negatively interdependent, outgroup indifference would constitute a positive expectancy violation, thereby inviting favorable responses. Moreover, we examined affective and inferential processes as mediators across four studies ( N = 2521). In Study 1, outgroup indifference (vs. anger and hatred but not hope) reduced negative emotions (but did not affect expected collaboration), subsequently increasing support for cooperation. Study 2 added qualitative measures and showed that outgroup indifference (vs. anger) increased support for cooperation through decreased negative emotions and increased expected collaboration. Study 3 provided correlational evidence that perceptions of interdependence predict participants' expectations of outgroup emotions. Lastly, in Study 4, outgroup indifference increased expected collaboration and emotions when interdependence was perceived as negative.

Full text

DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.70189