Party Considerations for Renomination in Pre‐Electoral Coalitions
2025-06-02
Pre‐electoral coalitions are common across diverse political contexts. In this letter, I examine their impact on one of the most consequential functions of political parties: the candidate selection process. Focusing on Mexican state legislators, I analyze how pre‐electoral coalitions shape incumbent renomination decisions. I outline a multi‐stage process in which parties assess district characteristics, incumbent attributes, and the electoral competition. Using fixed‐effects penalized maximum likelihood logistic regression, I find that parties prioritize different factors at different stages. The results show that while vote share and candidate characteristics do not influence renomination decisions in coalition districts, they are crucial in determining whether a party retains nomination rights. In contrast, in non‐coalition districts, candidate characteristics play a key role in renomination decisions. These findings demonstrate how coalition dynamics can reshape parties' renomination strategies.