Post-Treatment Problems: What Can We Say about the Effect of a Treatment among Sub-Groups Who (Would) Respond in Some Way?
2026-06-02
Investigators are often interested in how a treatment affects an outcome for units responding to treatment in a certain way. We may wish to know the effect among units that, for example, meaningfully implemented an intervention, passed an attention check or demonstrated some important mechanistic response. Simply conditioning on the observed value of the post-treatment variable introduces problematic biases. Further, the identification assumptions required by several existing strategies are often indefensible. We propose the treatment reactive average causal effect (TRACE), which we define as the total effect of treatment in the group that, if treated, would realize a particular value of the relevant post-treatment variable. By reasoning about the effect among the “non-reactive” group, we can identify and estimate the range of plausible values for the TRACE. We demonstrate the use of this approach with three examples: (i) learning the effect of police-perceived race on police violence during traffic stops, a case where point identification may be possible; (ii) estimating effects of a community policing intervention in Liberia, in communities that meaningfully implemented it; and (iii) studying how in-person canvassing affects support for transgender rights, among participants for whom the intervention would result in more positive feelings toward transgender people.