Resolving root causes of experiment discrepancies guided by machine learning
- D. Neudecker
- K. J. Kelly
- S. A. Vander Wiel
- A. D. Carlson
- M. J. Grosskopf
- D. A. Brown
- B. Pritychenko
- N. A. W. Walton
- R. C. Haight
2026-08-27
Scientists rely on accurate experimental data to explain nature and then harness this knowledge for applications addressing human needs. However, discrepancies between experiments of the same observable can impede scientific progress if one does not understand the underlying causes. Here, we developed a process that unravels data discrepancies by first using Bayesian machine learning to relate discrepancies to few of many, potentially biasing metadata features that encode experiment procedures. This machine learning output guides human experts to study discrepancy causes by simulating suspicious aspects of historical experiments or designing modern ones to address open questions. The study findings then lead to rejecting or correcting historical data on firm scientific bases. This process is demonstrated for the energy spectrum of neutrons emitted promptly (<1 ns) after fission of 252 Cf, a trusted nuclear physics Standard. It reduces the spread in experimental 252 Cf spectra by up to a factor of 6.