Satisfaction with democracy after presidential power transitions: Panel survey evidence from the 2025 Trump transition in the United States
2025-11-19
Much of the existing research on satisfaction with democracy examines cross-national dynamics of the winner-loser gap, exploring how institutional differences shape public opinion. In contrast, this study holds institutional factors constant and investigates how individual-level and system-level changes, i.e. actual transitions in political power following elections, affect people’s appraisals of democracy. In a panel survey that immediately precedes the January 20, 2025 inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, and two post-inaugural follow-up waves, we find a shifting partisan gap in satisfaction with democracy in America. Following Trump’s inauguration, partisan Democrats become less satisfied with democracy, Republicans become more satisfied, while Independents’ views are largely unchanged. To explain the shift, we consider economic, emotional, and institutional mechanisms, where changes in presidential trust provide the strongest mediation of the power transition gap. Our results illustrate how presidential power transitions can raise alarms among opposing partisans, especially in highly polarized contexts.