European Journal of Political Research
Satisfaction with democracy after winning and losing without elections
2026-07-03
Voters of government parties are systematically more satisfied with democracy than supporters of opposition parties. The dynamics of this winner-loser gap are typically studied in the context of elections. However, it is not clear how changes in government composition that occur without elections midway through an electoral cycle, and that change voters’ winner/loser status, influence satisfaction with democracy. We address this question by examining an unexpected government change in Estonia in 2016, which interrupted the European Social Survey data collection (Round 8). The largest party in a three-party coalition government was replaced by the largest opposition party midway through the 2015–2019 electoral cycle while all other parties retained their government or opposition status. These circumstances enabled us to examine the effect of winning and losing without elections using fixed effects models, including a difference-in-differences design. The results provide suggestive but fragile evidence that losing government status might reduce satisfaction with democracy, whereas the effect of winning is modest at best and statistically inconclusive. Where effects emerge, they do so with a lag of approximately six weeks, coinciding with the implementation of a major tax reform – consistent with policy-based considerations rather than by immediate affective responses.