Seeing Through “Transparent Oceans”: Emerging Technology, Submarine Vulnerability, and the Future of MAD
2026-08-12
Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are widely believed to be invulnerable to disarming strikes because of their weak detectable signatures and the large areas within which they can threaten an adversary. SSBNs are therefore considered secure second-strike forces and thus a strong deterrent against nuclear war and nuclear coercion. Many analysts now believe that various emerging technologies could render SSBNs vulnerable to disarming strikes. This study surveys key sensing and signal processing technologies featured in the “transparent oceans” debate (i.e., quantum sensors, artificial intelligence [AI], space-based sensors, and advanced acoustic sensors) and analyzes their potential to enhance SSBN detection. Findings indicate that states can enhance SSBN detection by applying AI algorithms to passive sonar signal processing. But the capabilities that have been demonstrated by the relevant AI algorithms in the unclassified literature suggest that these advances in SSBN detection are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. This study finds that the other technologies do not meaningfully improve SSBN detection; it is therefore highly unlikely that a threat to SSBNs that are presently survivable will materialize in the coming decades.