“Stop the Steal” Sentenced: An Analysis of Judge Appointment Effects on the Sentencing of January 6 Defendants
2026-03-28
This study examines whether the political appointment of federal judges influenced the sentencing of individuals charged in connection with the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. Using a novel dataset covering the full population of nearly 1,500 defendants with charges filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, we leverage random case assignment procedures to better understand the sentences that were imposed for each defendant. Our findings indicate that there were no significant partisan differences in terms of the imposition of incarceration or sentence length by these district judges. However, when disaggregating by individual presidents we find that distinct patterns are evident. These findings highlight the nuanced and sometimes unexpected ways appointment effects manifest in politically sensitive cases. They also underscore the significance of district judges amid ongoing legal conflicts involving presidential power.