Technology and civilian targeting in interstate war: evidence from Ukraine
2026-03-18
Why do military forces target civilians in interstate wars? Advances in long-range weapons allow states to strike deep behind front lines, while modern communications enable civilians to transmit targeting information. Together, these dynamics turn areas nominally under control into contested zones, putting civilians at risk as combatants seek to suppress and deter information sharing. We test this theory with geospatial evidence from the Russian war in Ukraine, combining fixed-effects with a regression discontinuity design. Civilian targeting rises sharply at the boundaries of conventional artillery range, and intensifies further with the introduction of HIMARS long-range rocket systems. Consistent with our argument, the effect is strongest in areas with extensive mobile communications coverage. Our study extends the control—collaboration model from civil wars to interstate wars, demonstrating how modern weapons and communications technologies reshape the geography of contestedness and heighten civilian vulnerability in an era of ubiquitous connectivity.