The Effect of the Great Recession on U.S. Fertility: Causal Estimates From a Novel Cohort Discontinuity Design
2026-06-11
Highlights This article presents causal effects of the Great Recession on U.S. fertility. Effects are identified using a new cohort discontinuity design. The design identifies effects for single-year cohorts of women, as well as for single-year cohorts of White and Black women. Estimated effects are negative for U.S. women born in the period 1964‒1992. Negative effects are largest for younger cohorts and for Black women.