The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration
2025-12-22
We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen criminal convictions, a decrease in schooling outcomes, and worse labour market outcomes in adulthood. The effects are concentrated among children from disadvantaged families, in particular families where the remaining non-convicted parent is disadvantaged. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behaviour in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets and progressive criminal justice systems.