International Migration Review
The Societal Determinants of Climate Risk for Refugees: Evidence From Global and African Refugee Corridors
2026-09-04
While a growing body of research examines the relationship between climate change and displacement in origin communities, less is known about the climate risks that displaced populations encounter in host areas. This study examines how climate risk (disaggregated into hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity) is reconfigured as refugees move from origin to host countries. We argue that the societal determinants of climate risk—in this analysis, the structural and institutional conditions of host and origin countries that mediate the consequences of hazard exposure—are at least as consequential as hazard exposure in shaping the climate risk environments in which displaced populations live. Drawing on the Climate-driven INFORM Risk Index and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Population Statistics from 2013 to 2022, we apply a migration corridor analysis globally and within Africa. We find a global rise in the number of refugees originating from high climate risk countries, and that 75 percent of global refugees reside in high or medium climate risk host countries. In Africa, displacement to neighboring or regional host countries shifts exposure to hazards but often not overall climate risk. as many refugees remain in countries characterized by high societal vulnerability and low coping capacity. Refugees who move intercontinentally typically face lower climate risks. Our findings demonstrate that cross-border displacement often reconfigures rather than alleviates climate risk, as the societal conditions that produce vulnerability prove far more persistent than patterns of hazard exposure.