The Victory Trap: Endogenous Opposition Coalition Weaknesses in Reversing Autocracy
2026-08-12
After opposition parties and alliances defeat dominant autocratic incumbents, what challenges do they encounter in reversing autocracy and what are the consequences? We argue that long-neglected endogenous weaknesses in opposition coalitions undermine re-democratization efforts, easily opening the door to autocratic comebacks. First, coalition intra-elite conflicts post-victory result in fractured and ineffective governance, generating mass disappointment with the new political elites. Second, coalition intra-supporter divergence pressures the new coalition government into implementing pro-democratic reforms at haphazard speeds and fluctuating scopes. Swift actions in reversing autocracy alienate supporters of the ex-autocrat, elicit accusations of partisan revenge, and fuel counter-mobilization against the new government. A most-different case comparison between the recent autocratic reversal experiences of Poland and Malaysia demonstrates our argument. We show in both cases that ideological and distributional conflicts among diverse coalition elites undermined governance after victory, and different supporter bases prioritized different policy agendas. Counter-mobilization by the autocratic ex-incumbents was highly successful in undermining public support for the new government. These findings suggest that profound challenges in reversing autocracy and rebuilding democracy lie within opposition coalitions themselves, in addition to authoritarian legacies.