Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting
- Yuzhi Tang
- Chao Yang
- Haishan Wu
- Zihao Xu
- Linlin Tan
- Wei Tu
- Bowen Li
- Zhaopeng Li
- Zhijun Wang
- Kai Guo
- Siting Xiong
- Shoubin Chen
- Bo Zhang
- Jindong Tian
- Yu Hu
- Zhipeng Chen
- Jonathan M. Chase
- Qingquan Li
2025-10-09
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Plus) projects generate carbon credits to offset emissions, but recent studies have questioned their effectiveness. We evaluated 52 voluntary REDD+ projects across 12 tropical countries using synthetic control methods. Only a minority of project units showed statistically significant reductions in deforestation, and just 19% met their reported emissions targets. Nonetheless, many underperforming projects still delivered partial climate benefits, with an estimated 13.2% of tradable credits supported by counterfactual analysis. Effectiveness varied by region, with stronger performance in Brazil and Africa. Although systematic over-crediting remains a concern, our results suggest greater climate benefits than previous assessments. Improving baseline methodologies and strengthening verification frameworks will be essential for enhancing the credibility and impact of forest carbon offsets.