When repression surprises: Contextual deviations and protest mobilization
2025-09-20
Many studies examine whether state repression deters or increases protest mobilization, yet empirical findings remain inconsistent. This study argues that mobilization depends less on the absolute level of repression than on how current repression deviates from what people have come to expect in a given context. It introduces discrepancy-based measures that capture these deviations relative to cumulative patterns of state violence, offering a context-sensitive alternative to conventional absolute measures such as fatality counts or arrests. Drawing on event-level data from ACLED, NAVCO, and SCAD, this article analyzes both country- and local-level panels using two-way fixed-effects regression and cumulative link mixed models. Across multiple datasets and specifications, the discrepancy measures consistently produce a U-shaped relationship: participation increases when repression is either higher or lower than established baselines. Comparisons with absolute measures show that the discrepancy approach more reliably explains variation in mobilization, helping to reconcile fragmented results in the repression–mobilization literature. These findings highlight the importance of expectations and contextual baselines in shaping how repression is interpreted and acted upon, suggesting that studies of contentious politics should move beyond static metrics toward measures that account for how actors evaluate state actions over time.