When the party is over: How parties respond to electoral decline
2026-07-29
Over the past decades, we have witnessed the severe electoral decline of formerly successful parties. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how these parties have responded to their losses. I examine the consequences of severe and persistent electoral losses through the lens of intra-party dynamics. I argue that parties react to severe decline by shifting attention to core issues and adopting more extreme positions. I theorize that this is because office-seekers are the first to abandon the sinking ship, tilting the internal power balance towards policy-motivated actors. Testing the theory with manifesto data from 18 Western European countries between 1970 and 2025, I find evidence that parties devote more attention to their core issues following their electoral decline. Parties do not, however, adopt more extreme positions on these issues. I find limited evidence that shifts in the intra-party balance are behind these changes.