When Will an Authoritarian Regime Concede? A Framework for Strategic Campaigning through Issue Selection and Framing
2026-06-04
Social actors frequently mobilise against hybrid regimes, yet efforts to block harmful projects or constrain executive overreach rarely succeed. This paper develops a framework for explaining and predicting when such regimes concede to civic demands, focusing on two dimensions: (1) the extent to which meeting a demand would threaten key pillars of the regime’s structural power; and (2) the degree to which an issue generates broad emotional resonance. Their configuration shapes the likelihood and form of concessions. The framework is tested through six campaigns between 2020 and 2024 in Serbia led by Move, Change, a major civic organisation opposing the Vučić regime. Across all six cases, the issue’s initial position in the two-dimensional matrix – and its movement over time – closely predicted regime behaviour. Low structural threat paired with high issue resonance tended to produce relatively swift concessions, whereas high-threat issues met sustained resistance. The paper advances research on authoritarian resistance by clarifying when civic pressure can meaningfully alter regime behaviour, while providing activists with a strategic planning tool for selecting and framing issues to maximise their leverage.